Expert Insights on Election Processes

SEIM Analytics offers analysis of elections/democratization at the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe & Ukraine, the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia (Myanmar/Sri Lanka).

With 20 years of extensive expertise in independent election observation for OSCE/ODIHR, European Union (EU/EEAS), and The Carter Center, SEIM Analytics offers analyses and assessments of electoral processes, good election practices, and election integrity.

·     Elections and democratization on the Balkans (Serbia and Kosovo, North Makedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova)

·      Assessments of politics and elections in Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary), Ukraine, South-Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia.

·      SEIM Analytics identifies voting patterns and gives advice on political strategies to win elections.

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Unpublished Election Observation Reports:

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential Election in Ukraine 2010 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the General Elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, 3 October 2010 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Early Presidential Elections in Ukraine 25 May 2014 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Moldova, 30 November 2014 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, 5 October 2015 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Parliamentary Elections in the Republic of Belarus, 11 September 2016 (The Norwegian Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential Elections in the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, 15 October 2017 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential/General Elections in Turkey, 24 June 2018 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: European Union Long-term Election Observation Report on the Tripartite Elections in Malawi, 21 May 2019 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Early Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine, 21 July 2019 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- The Carter Center: 20 pages to the Final Report of the Carter Center Election Observation Mission to the General Elections in Myanmar on 8 November 2020 (The Carter Center, Atlanta, but unpublished due to military coup in 2021).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the General elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina on 3 October 2022 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential elections in Montenegro on 19 March and 2 April 2023 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential elections in Uzbekistan on 9 July 2023 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Local elections in Moldova on 5 November 2023 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: European Union Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential Elections in Sri Lanka, 21 September 2024 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

- NORDEM: OSCE/ODIHR Long-term Election Observation Report on the Presidential elections in Romania on 4 and 18 May 2025 (NORCAP, The Norwegian Refugee Council).

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Election and political outcome forecasting:

As an election analyst, Seim regularly forecasts election winners and political process results correctly:

Predicting election winners and conflict trajectories is a key to design political partnerships and to handle investment portfolios. SEIM Analytics assist clients in understanding political/election dynamics in Southeast & Eastern Europe and the risks associated.

Being independent, SEIM Analytics dears to make the “wrong” but right predictions:

  • Donald Trump to win the 2016 US presidential election! Proclaimed on Twitter 3. Jan. 2016 “Trump new US President!“ Also proclaimed on the 8 November election day in Bergens Tidende: “Tomorrow, Wednesday, we may wake up to Trump as the president of the United States.”

  • Donald Trump to win the 2024 US presidential election! (…which was obvious long before Biden conceded his unsuitability and when Kamala Harris was set to run).

  • X: 10. Feb. 2024 – “Been saying for some years now that Biden is not cognitively OK and should not run as president, but meeting denial from anti-Trump people who's only hope - paradoxically - for Trump not to win is that Biden doesn't stand.”

  • X: 4. März 2024 – “The woke movement is not a civil rights movement fighting for equality, it's a political/cult movement fighting for supremacy...” (Indeed, it looks like the woke movement is a US type of cultural revolution, like China once had) 

  • No elections to take place in Donetsk on 25 May 2014 (flagged by Seim in internal OSCE/ODIHR reporting from Donetsk late March 2014).

  • Prediction in internal ODIHR reporting: Djukanović to lose the presidential elections in Montenegro (April 2023)

  • After attending Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s rally in Ampara as EU observer and the genuine support from people compared to that of other candidates campaigning in the Eastern Province, predicting Dissanayake to become president of Sri Lanka (September 2024).

  • Poland presidential election 2025: conservative Karol Nawrocki to win.

  • Election predictions on Serbian politics in Norwegian newspapers and to Đinđić-coordinators during 2000, among other that only Vojislav Koštunica, not Zoran Đinđić, could defeat Slobodan Milošević in the September 2000 election due to the nationalist orientation of Koštunica.

  • POLYMAKER prediction market results > (page under construction)

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